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Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    So do I.
     
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  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That's a plan!
     
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    The Eastern Conference teams are on bottom because their schedules are generally easier.

    The things to notice:
    - Portland had the 6th easiest schedule to date and has the most difficult going forward. Will be a test for them.
    - Phoenix will also see their schedule get tougher.
    - In Contrast, UTA has had the hardest and have an easier ride going forward.
    - Good news for us is that things will stay exactly the same. In the East, that means that a small improvement by us should be good enough for playoffs.


    Every NBA Team's Remaining Strength Of Schedule, In One Chart
     
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  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Last 30 made buckets against Moose. Just logging to get a feel for how he's getting scored on. Keep in mind that overall, his man is being held in check... it's his help D that is questionable. I'm coloring them in Green when they were not GM's fault (IMO) due to switches, screens, mismatches, etc.
    1. Plumlee hit FT line J. GM sagged off him too much.
    2. Dragic hit 3. Got isolated with GM after transition stopped. He got GM to sag and lifted up. (would have happened to any big man).
    3. Frye took step-back 3. Had GM out of his comfort zone.
    4. Tucker hit 3. GM got lost on P&R and Stuckey abandoned his man to come to the paint and stop layup. Ball was kicked to Stuck's man and GM couldn't get there.
    5. Frye hit 3. Pick and pop and GM and Bynum both followed the guard. Wide open shot.
    6. Young got layup. Drove past GM.
    7. Valaciunus post up. Well defended and awkward shot.
    8. Amir hit long 2. GM sagged to guard against drive.
    9. Bargnani hit long 2. Got screen in paint and sprinted out to his spot.
    10. Bargnani layup. Pump fakes, got GM in the air and drove by him (JS offered some resistance with help D, but couldn't stop it)
    11. Bargnani hit 3. Monroe abandoned him appropriately to stop guard who drove by KCP.
    12. Leuer hit 3. Pick and pop and GM was slow/ frozen.
    13. Leuer with 14' shot. GM sagged.
    14. Gortat post up. Left hand hook running into lane.
    15. Gortat post up. Left hook.
    16. Gortat post up. Left hook.
    17. Booker post up. Left hook.
    18. Davis his mid range J. GM had to leave him to stop Gigi's man.
    19. Dellavedova his corner 3. Pistons were in zone and GM couldn't make it to corner in time.
    20. Corner 3. GM helped in paint to cut off guard that drove by Jennings.
    21. DHo post up. Got a bunny after a fake.
    22. DHo post up. Left hook.
    23. DHo post up. Left hook.
    24. Henderson hit long J. GM switched after a screen. Henderson iso'd him and did the shake and bake thing. GM defended it well.
    25. Corner 3. GM had to go to paint to stop Jennings' man.
    26. McRoberts post up. Fadeaway MJ style.
    27. AlJeff post up. Fadeaway over right shoulder Sheed style.
    28. AlJeff post up. Spun to right, pump faked and went under. (and 1).
    29. D West with FT extended J. GM sagged.
    30. D West post up. Quick catch and fade away.

    So, in this sample of 30, here is the breakdown:
    - Zero dunks.
    - 9 three-pointers. (30%)
    - 7 jump shots inside the arc (23%)
    - 12 post ups (40%)
    - 2 layups (drove by him) (7%)

    - 4 weren't his fault at all. On 1, he was caught on a point guard in transition and sagged like all big men have to in that situation. On 1 other, he was caught on a SF, but he hung with him as a PF should be able to do.

    - 4 others were the result of Monroe just sagging off of his man. That's what makes stretch 4's valuable- they pull him out of the paint AND they generally get wide open shots.

    So, I'm saying that 17% of these weren't his fault. I didn't see him help improperly at all, except for his tendency to sag off his man too far. That isn't necessary with Smith and Drummond out there protecting his back (theoretically).

    The other teams attacked him in the paint when they had power PFs and went at him repeatedly. For some reason, the left hook shot was their go-to move (6 times from righties!).

    After watching this batch, I'd say that other teams should P&R and P&P more against Monroe. Those were the situations where he looked the poorest. Stretch 4's will stretch him out and power 4's will take him in the post. He doesn't have the physical quickness or athleticism to really thwart either of those scenarios, so the best that he can do is to play solid D in the post and not foul or leave his feet. For the most part, he does that.

    Conclusion- besides tightening up decisions on pick situations and cheating out further toward his man once he learns to trust the defense behind him, no coaching is going to make him a better defender. He's at his potential. So far, he's more efficient on offense than his guys are against him and he's rebounding well on both ends of the court, so that is what we're looking for. When Monroe DOES choose to help, they appear to be effective decisions... at least the ones in this batch. Tough to get a feel for the help that he's not providing, especially given his lack of quickness. If you're not going to be effective with help, it's better to stay put.
     
  5. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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    Yes he does. I have no idea why he isn't being played. He is honestly one of our best role players.

    Moose will command 13-15m in RFA. Lets be real here. Deng is most likely going to end up with a 5/15
     
  6. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    One of our biggest issues is Greg Monroe the Power Forward. He's a decent c
    You know what all of this tells me....Greg Monroe is a 6'11" Center that we are asking to play PF. Moving him to Center would immediately help our pick and roll/pop defense IMO. All more reasons to move Andre Drummond out of the starting lineup until a roster move can be done.
     
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  7. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    Then what happened the last 3 years prior to this when he was playing C?
     
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I just showed the made baskets. The misses are a much longer list. I think he's doing a good enough job covering his own man.

    I'd still rather keep all three and just never play them all together. I'd deal with the politics before I'd trade one of them. Who's in charge anyways? Just bring smith off the bench since he's contractually locked in for years. Play smith and monroe in crunch time and then put dre in for the final 2:00 when they can't hack him.
     
  9. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    Whoever ends up paying Deng 5/15 will regret it in a couple of years. I wouldn't want him if that's the price tag.
    I would be very surprised if Moose got more than 12M from anybody.
     
  10. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Derrick Favors (14 and 9) already set the market price for Moose.
     
  11. Walter

    Walter All-Star Forum Donor

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    He's getting $12.5M, right? That's palatable for Moose for me.
     
  12. hitafreethrow

    hitafreethrow Team Captain 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    4 year, $49 million extension as of October...
     
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    If KCP goes 0-39 in his next 39 three point attempts, he will have the exact number of makes and attempts as Josh Smith.
    If Kyle Singler goes 3-56 in his next 56 attempts, he will also match Smith's figures.

    Amir Johnson is shooting a higher 3P% this year than JS and he has actually attempted 45 of them (so he's not just 1-3 or anything).

    Josh has attempted 152 from deep this year. The highest number of attempts by any NBA player with a worse shooting percentage is 37 by Tyreke Evans.

    Think how many games we would lose if KCP and KS went a combined 3-94 from the arc. Josh Smith has already blessed us with that, just spread out over the season YTD. That has for sure resulted in losses.

    Smith's 3-point chucking per month:
    Nov: .270 (20-74) combining 1 game in Oct with Nov's games.
    Dec: .231 (13-56)
    Jan: .182 (4-22)

    His average started off terrible and has dropped 2 rungs of terribleness further. His attempts per game are going down slightly (thank God): 4.6, 3.3, 3.1 and Mo seemed to have gotten through to him a bit with his urging Smith to post up. Smith is on pace to set the NBA record for most 3's attempted by somebody with such a low average. In fact, he has probably already set it and we're not even to the all star break.

    Month: 2P%/ FTA per game:
    Nov: .464/ 3.6
    Dec: .447/ 3.3
    Jan: .494/ 6.1

    January has been his worst month from the arc, but he's limited his attempts a bit and had a much better time down low with close to 50% shooting and 6.1 FTA/game (almost double his previous foul drawing rate). But his 2P% is still not very good. It's 10th on the team, and only in front of the guards (KCP, Bynum, Jennings, Billups, and Siva). And of course his FT% also stinks (only ahead of Drummond).

    Josh Smith is basically last on the team in TS% (ahead of only Chauncey, Siva, and Datome), yet he's attempted 26 more shots than anyone else on the team, even Jennings. He needs to either be way more selective to increase his efficiency, or we need to put him in a role that results in less programmed touches for him just to limit the damage. I've heard several times that the team doesn't run plays for Kyle Singler or Drummond. I can understand Drummond, since he gets plenty of attempts as a free roaming garbage man, but seems silly not to run plays for anybody on the team that can actually shoot the ball.

    Wake up Mo. Wake up Josh. You're killing us. If Greg Monroe decided to catch the ball in the post and purposefully punt the ball into the stands three times per game, he'd still be as efficient as Josh Smith. That situation would be better for us because at least Mo would notice the problem and make a correction.


    Against the Eastern Conference, we actually score more than our opponents. Against the WC, we are getting beat by over 10 points per game. We are very lucky to be playing on the weak side of the NBA and we actually match up surprisingly well against the 2 best teams in the East. It's not going to take much for us to secure our playoff position. This is where I would start.
     
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  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Updated PPP (points per possession) and PPP allowed. Ranked by differential:
    1. Harrellson: 1.05/ 0.72/ +0.33
    2. Singler: 1.06/ 0.81/ +0.25
    3. Drum: 1.02/ 0.87/ +0.15
    4. Monroe: 0.91/ 0.86/ +0.05
    5. KC Pope: 0.91/ 0.91/ 0.00
    6. Bynum: 0.83/ 0.86/ -0.03
    7. Stuckey: 0.92/ 0.99/ -0.07
    8. Jennings: 0.80/ 0.90/ -0.10
    9. J Smith: 0.80/ 0.97/ -0.17
    10. Billups: 0.66/ 0.86/ -0.20
    It's hard to believe that Billups is actually hanging tight with Josh, despite his horrid 0.66 PPP on offense. With that, he should be dead last by a country mile. That gets back to the punting the ball into the stands thing.
     
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  15. Laimbrane

    Laimbrane All-Star Forum Donor

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    The only place Smith doesn't shoot embarrassingly badly is from the inside, where he's average.

    Interestingly, the Piston's two good three-point shooters (KCP and Singler) are both above-average from the right side. Singler, in particular, is shooting 61% from the right corner.

    The team, with those two on the court together, averages 109.6 ppp on offense and gives up 101.8 ppp on defense (307 total minutes together). By +/-, they're the best Pistons' duo of any group that doesn't include Harrellson that sees significant court time (+1.0).

    In comparison, Drummond isn't positive with anyone except Datome and Siva. I think he's the one that suffering most from the overlap in the Hydra.

    I'd like to see how a starting five of Jennings/Pope/Singler/Smith/Monroe would look.
     
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  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Average time of possession per player per game on the Pistons (i.e. ball in their hands or being dribbled by them):
    1. Jennings: 7.3 minutes
    2. Bynum: 3.2
    3. Stuckey: 2.3
    4. Smith: 1.8
    5. Monroe: 1.5
    6. Drumm: 0.8
    7. Pope: 0.7
    8. Singler: 0.6
    9. Harrellson: 0.2
     
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I saw on DBB that Dre is trending toward rare company in his offensive rebounds average. He's above 5.0 offensive rebs per game.

    I believe that Moses Malone (tons of times), Dennis Rodman (a handful of times), Hakeem Olajowon (once), and Jayson Williams (twice) are the only guys to accomplish that average for an entire NBA season. All were all-stars.

    [​IMG] 20 years old

    [​IMG]19 years old
     
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm finding this website extremely interesting. Some great visualization tools too.

    2014 ASPM | DStats

    This analysis says that our players's production warrants the following salaries:
    Drummond: $16.5M
    Jennings: $8.5
    Monroe: $6.0
    Smith: $5.5
    KCP: $2.2
    Singler: $1.7
    Stuckey: $1.7
    Harrellson: $1.4
    Jerebko: $1.0
    Bynum: $0.6
    Charlie V: $0.3
    Siva: -$0.3 (i.e. should pay us $300K in damages)
    Datome: -$0.6
    Billups: -$1.3

    We actually have a lot of guys who are outproducing on their rookie contracts, but Drummond is making up for a lot salary wise.


    Overrated and Underrated via RAPM (Part 2) | DStats
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2014
  19. Mogilny

    Mogilny All-Star Forum Donor

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    I used to follow that blog before Google shut down Reader. I never recovered from that even though I exported my feeds to TheOldReader before it was too late.
     
  20. The Panda

    The Panda Garbage Post All Star Forum Donor

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