The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    He famously deferred against us a couple years ago and said it was the right play. He was right, but he did get a lot of criticism.

    It's never going away, but there will be coaches out there who will make their teams a little less predictable I would think.

    If MJ can pass to Kerr, then Billups can pass to Kleiza.
     
  2. pass99

    pass99 All-Star Forum Donor

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    Such a great post. You are much stronger when you have balance (and watch those averages). In honor of your efforts, I think you would enjoy this talk about the power of open data and understanding what data (at times) can point toward:

    Best of TED: Hans Rosling | Epicenter from Wired.com
     
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Will attempt to chart out the Det/Bucks game. Basically, what I'm getting after is how we scored and how they scored. It's complex the way things flow on the floor, but I'll give it a try.

    Quarter #1. #=possession. D=Det. M=Mil.

    1D: Stuck misses pull up in the paint.
    1M: Elson missed FT line fade away over Tay.
    2D: Tay missed hook in paint and got own rebound. Stuck missed fade away in the paint.
    2M: Sessions layup. Drove past AI, Sheed slow to help (let him go).
    3D: Amir turnover in post.
    3M: Vill baseline jumper over Sheed.
    4D: Sheed 3-point make.
    4M: RJ jump shot. Tay tripped and was at RJ's feet.
    5D: Tay tripped while driving and turned it over falling out of bounds.
    5M: RJ missed jump shot over Tay.
    6D: Sheed 3-point make.
    6M: Vill missed 3-pointer. Amir left him open to help in paint.
    7D: Sheed missed 3. Amir fouled on offensive rebound. Tay missed dunk, popped in an out.
    7M: Sessions scored on tear drop over AI. Semi fast break.
    8D: AI missed FT line fade away. Amir tipped Oreb to Stuck. AI layup.
    8M: Vill missed 3 over Tay.
    9D: Stuck missed baseline jumper.
    9M: My Bootay slashed past AI to get pass and layup (can't tell why AI was guarding him. Looked like disorganized and went zone).
    10D: Sheed 3-point make.
    10M: Vill missed drive in paint over Sheed.
    11D: Stuck alley oop to Amir.
    11M: RJ drove past Tay on baseline. Missed reverse layup. error.
    12D: Tay airball 3. Amir fouled on Oreb. Stuck missed floater. Amir Oreb. Sheed 3-point make.
    12M: turnover, AI steal.
    13D: Stuck missed fastbreak layup. Amir Oreb and dunk. (tech for slap).
    13M: C.Bell 3-pointer over AI.
    14D: AI fouled on drive. Non-shooting. FT's b/c of bonus.
    14M: Session got in paint and hit jumper over AI.
    15D: AI missed terrible runner in paint trying to draw foul.
    15M: C.Bell missed jumper over Amir, semi fast break.
    16D: AI fouled on baseline drive. Non shooting. Bonus.
    16M: Alexander missed jumper over Amir.
    17D: Tay drives and is blocked in paint by Gadz. 24 sec violation.
    17M: CBell misses 3 over Rip.
    18D: Rip jumper from post. Just outside of paint.
    18M: AI steal.
    19D: Rip layup on fast break.
    19M: Alexander hits long jumper over Amir.
    20D: AI jumper from FT line extended.
    20M: Sessions drives by AI, fouled by Amir.
    21D: Rip jumper from FT line extended.
    21M: Bogans jumper blocked by Tay.
    22D: AI fadeaway jumper from FT line.
    22M: CBell misses half court heave.

    So, looking at the 1st quarter only, here is how the Bucks scored on us.

    Tay: RJ hit one shot against Tay when he tripped. The Bucks missed all 5 other shots when Tay was defending.

    Sheed: Vill hit a jumper over Sheed and also missed a contested shot in the paint against him. Sheed failed to help on AI's man on a drive.

    Rip: Milwaukee only went at Rip 1 time and missed the jumper.

    Amir: Alexander hit a college 3 over him. 3 other misses with Amir guarding. Amir fouled Sessions when he drove by AI.

    AI: Milwaukee went at him a bunch. 4 made shots over him. 2 drives past him without picks, 1 scored on Sheed, 1 fouled by Amir. No shots missed by Milwaukee with AI guarding.

    Other quarters in process.
     
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    2nd Quarter:

    1M: turnover, Rip steal.
    1D: Rip layup on 1-man fast break.
    2M: Vill in paint over Dyess.
    2D: AI misses FT line ext jumper.
    3M: Vill shoots 3 over Maxiell.
    3D: AI misses scoop shot in paint.
    4M: Vill misses jumper over Maxiell. Gadz gets Oreb. Jones misses 3 over Rip.
    4D: Dyess hits 15 footer.
    5M: Vill drives on Maxiell and is fouled in paint.
    5D: Stuck offensive foul just past half court.
    6M: CBell missed jumper over Afflalo.
    6D: Dyess misses 15 footer. Maxiell get Oreb. Rip t/o.
    7M: CBell fouled on dunk attempt by Afflalo in fast break.
    7D: Stuck missed 15 footer. Dyess with Oreb. Rip hits 3-pointer.
    8M: D.Jones hits 3 over AA, who was picked and late to get out.
    8D: Rip misses in paint. Maxiell Oreb. Rip hits long 2 with foot on 3-pt line.
    9M: Vill hits jumper over Maxiell.
    9D: Dyess scores lay in after pass from Rip.
    10M: Vill drives by Maxiell and drops off to Gadz, who is fouled by Dyess. Dyess had to help on Vill and didn't have a chance.
    10D: Rip missed 3.
    11M: Sessions missed J over Maxiell, AA fouled Vill on rebound.
    11D: Rip missed shot in paint.
    12M: Vill fouled in paint by Maxiell.
    12D: Sheed missed bank shot fade away from paint.
    13M: Vill scored in paint over Tay.
    13D: Rip hits 3-pointer.
    14M: Bogans missed 3 over Rip.
    14D: Dyess missed fade away from post.
    15M: Vill missed floater over Dyess. Got Oreb. Fouled by Dyess on put back attempts.
    15D: Stuck missed jumper. Tay Oreb tip in.
    16M: Sessions drives by Stuck and draws the foul. (ticky tack call).
    16D: Rip hits jumper from FT ext.
    17M: Bogans slashes past Rip, gets pass and scores over Dyess in paint.
    17D: Dyess hits baseline Jumper.
    18M: Bogans misses 3 over Rip.
    18D: Tay drives and turns it over. (really got fouled on arm).
    19M: CBell misses jumper over Rip.
    19D: Sheed misses fade away from post.
    20M: Vill misses 3 over Dyess.
    20D: AI fouled outside of paint. bonus.
    21M: RJ misses shot in paint over Tay.
    21D: Rip layup on fast break.
    22M: CBell hits open jump shot. AI picked. Sheed chooses to guard open big man in paint.
    22D: AI throws alley oop to Sheed, and Sheed fumbles it. error.
    23M: My Bootay missed jumper in paint over Dyess.

    How Milwaukee scored.

    Dyess: Mil scored on Dyess 4 times. Missed shots over him 3 times.

    Maxiell: Scored on him 4 times. Drove by him once, resulting in a score. Missed 2 shots over him.

    Afflalo: Scored once on him when he was picked. score once when he intentionally fouled a player on a fast break. Missed 1 over him.

    Rip: drove by him once, resulting in a score. Missed 4 shots over him.

    Tay: scored on Tay once. Missed 1 shot over him.

    Stuck: got scored on once. Let his man drive by him once resulting in a score.

    AI: got scored on once when he was picked. Sheed didn't help b/c man in paint would have been wide open.


    The biggest thing I notice from this quarter is that Milwaukee attacked Dyess and Maxiell relentlessly. 13 possessions were pointed at those two resulting in 19 points. Rip was our best stopper with 4 stops.
     
  5. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Nice try but Bucks aren't that good. No Redd.
    AI with 2 steals counters 2 plays against.
     
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I wasn't trying to show that they were good or bad. Just trying to show how we are getting scored on and how things work out with switches, etc. Seeing if there are any patterns in the way other teams attack us.

    I'd really like to hear another team's gameplan for how to attack the Pistons this year vs. previous years. From what I can tell in this small sample, they go right at AI, Max, and Dyess. They also tried Tay and Rip, but were getting shut down pretty good.
     
  7. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Come in from the weak side and hope no one switches.
     
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Current standings in TS% (combines 2's, 3's, and FT's). This helps guys like AI and Stuckey.
    1. Amir J.- .610
    2. JMaxi - .563
    3. Brown- .540
    4. Sheed- .530
    5. Afflalo- .529
    6. Stuck- .525
    7. Dyess- .517
    8. Bynum- .514
    9. Prince- .512
    10. Iversn- .508
    11. Fabio- .506
    Much tighter grouping with TS% than with regular FG%. The reason is that for a guy like Amir, his TS% is almost the same as his regualr FG%, while for AI, it increases by almost 100 basis points b/c of all the free throws. Sheed's go up a lot b/c of all his 3's.

    When looking at this, I find it interesting that Afflalo is our most efficient guard. That's a testament to his willingness to attack the basket and his improved outside stroke. Prince and AI are pretty low. AI's trends have been better recently since he and Rip have divorced. Our top 3 are all garbage men, so they rarely shoot unless they got it.

    The most impressive in my mind is Sheed.

    Another thing to keep in mind is that the go-to perimeter players will often get stuck with the ball at the end of the shot clock and have to force it. It seems like no matter what list I make, Herrmann is at the very end of it. He shouldn't feel too bad though, since he's essentially tied with a superstar.
     
  9. FreshPrince22

    FreshPrince22 Bench Warmer

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    Neato stat of the day: Amir Johnson has fouled out in TWO out of 43 games played this season. Curry has forced him to leave 144 fouls in his pocket so far this season.

    With Amir on the court we give up 103.1 points per 100 Possessions.
    With Amir off the court we give up 108.6 points per 100 possessions.

    With Amir on the court we give up 45.5% eFG shooting.
    With Amir off the court we give up 49.2% eFG shooting.

    What happend to "We need him out on the court"?
     
  10. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Those kinds of stats FP22 will cause Curry some consternation.
     
  11. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    I'm not sure but I think this is my first post to this thread.
    I read this thread on a regular basis and I'm impressed by the level of depth that folks like TaS bring to the discussion.

    Ok, ...here it goes.

    The following is my best estimate regarding the number of minutes that TayShaun Prince has spent standing on the wing, palming the ball during his NBA career.

    1. I would estimate that he does this about twice per game for an average of 7 seconds per palm. = 14 seconds per game

    2. As of this post, Tay has appeared in 503 regular season games and an additional 114 post season games = 617 total games

    3. With an average of 14 seconds per game of Tay palming the ball, the cumulative number of seconds = 8638 total seconds (144 minutes)

    To sum up:
    About 2 hours and 40 minutes of Tayshaun Prince's career has been spent by him standing on the court with his arm extended, holding the ball in his palm.

    That's 3 entire games of Tay's career.
    ...Standing there.
    ...Arm Extended.
    ...Holding the ball.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    I think Micheal Jordans air time was added up to be 3 months for his career.
     
  13. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    It's weird the way stuff adds up. I figured out once that I spent four work days per year getting through airport security.
     
  14. round

    round All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion

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    Pre 911 or post? I really like the changes to security, i get thru chicago in 5-10 mins now at most compared to spending close to an hour on a regular basis...

    if your spending 4 days a year now.... you fly alot lol
     
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That's pretty funny. Twice a game for 7 seconds? Doesn't he only do it to end the game when we have a lead? That would make it more like once per week.

    Probably the best way to verify this is to measure for the next 5 games or so and see how he tracks to that average.

    It would also be a good drinking game. Pistons drinking game rules might make for a good thread actually...
     
  16. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Definitely post.

    You have to time a couple to see how long it really takes you - it adds up pretty quick. And not all airports have decent premier lines so they take longer. Even at ten minutes per, if you fly a hundred times...
     
  17. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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  18. professor

    professor Bench Warmer Forum Donor

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  19. Blue

    Blue First Round Draft Pick

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    An interesting quote from the article you posted:

    "For instance, the numbers show him that Allen Iverson is one of the most efficient scorers in the N.B.A. when he goes to his right; when he goes to his left he kills his team."
     
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Thanks Prof. Very well written article.

    I found this part of it interesting.

    I knew that was the case in bball, but I guess I never thought of how it is really not the case in other sports. Bball does seem to be the one sport where you can really be a stat hog and where you get recognized in a positive way for dominating the action, even if it is not in an efficient way.

    Also, reading the part about Mutumbo and his finger wag (and how it would be better to just start the break) reminded me of what Bill Russell was talking about when they interviewed him at the all star game. He basically said that his favorite dunk was the one where he would curl on the baseline and do a reverse dunk without touching the rim so that he could immediately get back on defense. Bill Russell was optimizing for his team, not himself. There are hundreds of small things you can do that make you look less impressive, but that help the team.

    This was also pretty cool:
     

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