The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Now through 11 games (55% of this stretch), we are still tracking .5 games behind the predicted outcome. 4-6 through the first 10. We really should beat Milwaukee, so we'll be back on track if that happens.

    But get ready for some extreme unrest from the fan base and here on the forum over the next 9 games. Even though it is predictable, losing multiple games in a row causes anger and makes people look for escape goats and such.

    Curry is not really doing Dyess (or himself) any favors by starting Dyess on the eve of a possible 7 game losing streak.
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Just for old time's sake:

    Per 36 minutes this year:

    Darko/Sheed
    .540/ .517 eFG%
    11.4/ 13.9 pts
    8.9/ 8.2 reb
    1.1/ 1.2 ast
    0.8/ 1.1 stl
    1.9/ 1.5 blk
    +5.0/ +7.4 on/off court +/- (DMC 3rd on Mem, Sheed 1st on Det).

    Looks like we got ourselves something close to a toss-up here.
  3. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Darko don't play anywhere near 36 min.
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    So, maybe he should?

    The Grizz are 3-3 when he plays at least 30 min.

    When Gasol gets 30 minutes or more, they are 6-21.
  5. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Until he can protect his hands, 20 min. is about all he can handle.
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    STEALING REBOUNDS:

    Please don't take this post the wrong way. This is a follow up on a theory I have about Dyess. He's putting up the best rebounding stats of any of our bigs, yet there isn't that big of a difference in our total rebounding with him on the court. So, my theory is that he is stealing rebounds from others.

    I don't mean to imply that he is doing this selfishly (as I believe he is the least selfish player on the team right now). But I think that he is aggressively grabbing the attainable boards while not making his teammates better rebounders on the misses that he can't grab.

    Here are the correlations that point toward this as being the case:
    Looking at how players do without Dyess and how they do with him.
    All of the following are per 40-min stats. I also include the most beneficial big man partner at the end of each.

    AI: averages 3.4 rebs. With Dyess on the court, he averages 3.1, which is the lowest that he averages with any one particular player. AI averages the most rebounds when he's on the court with Maxiell (4.3).

    RS: averages 4.4 rebs. With Dyess on the court, he averages 4.1, which is the lowest with any player. He gets the most when paired with Kwame Brown (4.5).

    AA: averages 4.6 rebs. With Dyess, it's only 4.2, which is the 2nd lowest, marginally behind Tay. He gets the most when paired with Maxiell (5.3).

    RH: averages 3.5 rebs. With Dyess, it's only 3.0, the lowest. He gets the most when paired with Amir (4.7).

    AJ: averages 10.5 rebs. With Dyess, it's only 8.2, the lowest. He gets the most when paired with Kwame (12.4).

    TP: averages 7.0 rebs. With Dyess, it's only 6.3, the 2nd lowest. He gets the most with Sheed (7.2).

    RW: averages 9.1 rebs. With Dyess, it's only 8.3, the 2nd lowest. He gets the most with Amir (9.9).

    KB: averages 11.1 rebs. With Dyess, it's only 6.4, the lowest. He gets the most when paired with Amir (11.6).

    JM: averages 9.2 rebs. With Dyess, it's 10.7, the highest!!!


    So, 5 players have their worst rebounding stats when paired with Dyess, another 3 have their 2nd worst rebounding stats when paired with Dyess, and 1 player has his best when paired with Dyess.

    If you take the average loss in rebounds for each player, then a group of 4 of them lose 3.8 boards when paired with Dyess for 40 minutes.

    Now, amazingly, there is one player who has a huge rebounding spike when paired with Dyess. That is Jason Maxiell. And even more amazingly, Dyess's rebounds also go way up when paired with Maxiell (so they are not just sharing the available boards). This is true synergy.

    When you also consider that Sheed rebounds best when paired with Amir, and Amir rebounds above his average when paired with Sheed, then you also have synergy.

    Many of us have been using intuition and anecdotal evidence to suggest that it makes sense to pair solid defensive rebounding vets with aggressive offensive rebounding youth, but this is the first time that I've actually seen such convincing numerical evidence.

    Conclusion: Moving Dyess to the starting lineup may feel like the safe thing to do, but it is ignoring the way that players interact with eachother on the court. It is less efficient than the previous system.
  7. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Are those offensive or defensive rebounds?

    I'm not trying to make work for you, but I think you need to split test your hypothesis.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    It's total rebounds. I don't think the breakout exists in the public realm. 82games may have it on a hard drive somewhere.


    I'm not sure how the breakouts would refute the overall numbers though. However the ratio between O and D rebs works out, there is a huge rebounding benefit to the Dyess/Max pairing.

    And as far as Dyess with the rest of the guys? I'm not saying it is bad, just that Dyess is taking rebounds away from them. So, my point is that he's looking good while doing it, but the team isn't significantly better off because of it. Not worse off either.

    The detriment with Dyess appears to be how we suffer offensively with a 3 point per game drop off. Our defensive numbers with him aren't as good as with Amir or Sheed, but they are right around the average for the team.
  9. BallDon'tLie

    BallDon'tLie All-Star 3x Fantasy Champion

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    Sorta like when C-Webb was stealing Chauncey's assists.
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Exactly. Too bad we didn't have the breakouts then, or we could have confirmed it.
  11. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I don't believe in "stealing stats". Either we get more net rebounds or less. I can deal with certain lineups being ineffective, certain players making other players worse, while their own stats go up

    But stealing stats is like "too big to fail".

    Besides, Jwill and Mike Bibby never had a problem with someone "stealing their assists". I think that's a copout (not by you TaS) from the players.

    I mean seriously, Cwebb was one of the greatest passing big men of all time, but when he uses his talents, it's theft? Did Ben Wallace steal shot blocks from Rasheed Wallace? Did Rip Hamilton steal 3 pointers from Chauncey Billups?

    I think (I feel really) that the offensive and defensive rebounds matter, because Sheed almost never gets offensive boards, and Amir and Max are more active on the offensive boards than the defensive boards, whereas I would say Dice is pretty active on both, with a slight advantage for defensive boards.

    That's just based on my observation would can be flawed and susceptible to all sorts of biases.

    But anyway, my point is, Amir + Sheed could be good, because they cover up each other's deficiencies. But IMO, and this is strictly opinion, Dice is a beast on the boards, he's head and shoulders the best rebounder on the team, and to ascribe that to "theft" from a more limited player, seems wrong to me. Unless we want Dice to be less of a beast, so Amir or Max or Kwame or whoever can be better.

    Which sounds a lot like stat welfare to me.
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    It would be wrong for another player on the team to accuse Dyess of taking their stats. And I don't think any of them have even let that cross their mind. This exercise is just me trying to figure out what is really happening out there.

    Don't you think it is weird that all players on the team (except for Maxiell) see their rebounding numbers crushed when Dyess is in the game with them? This tells me that there are certain rebounds where multiple Pistons could come away with it and Dyess usually is the one to do so.

    Again, I'm trying to be careful in the way that I'm phrasing this, because I don't think Dyess is doing anything wrong. I don't think any player on the team should lay off at all when going for a rebound.

    My larger point is just that there are things that you can do to help your team rebound besides grab the ball. If you read that article about Battier, it talks about this. Many times, the guy who boxes out won't be the one to come away with the ball. If you can't get the rebound yourself, you can tip it to someone else who can grab it (Bell Wallace was great at this). Dyess is very good at grabbing the actual ball. And that is a valuable thing, because we outrebound the opposition when he's in the game.

    But there are other players on the team who don't come away with personal rebounding stats quite as high as Dyess, but who help their teammates get rebounds. Maxiell, Kwame, and/or Amir tend to be on the court when other players are rebounding their highest. This is also OK, because we outrebound the opposition in those cases too. Different ways to skin a cat you could say.

    In the case of Dyess and Maxiell, I'm just pointing out that it isn't a zero sum game. With everyone else, Dyess gets more rebounds and the other players get less. With Maxiell, Dyess gets more rebounds and so does Maxiell.
  13. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    You'll get no argument from me that the lineups are not played with symbiosis in mind.

    I think we need to look at what Brahma is doing with Dice that Sheed, Amir and others are not. I don't know the answer, but it will probably illustrate something exceptional about Maxiell, or something deficient in the other guys.
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    One thing that really screws up the numbers is that Sheed has been the lone big man for most of the small ball that we have played this year. Curry admitted that our defense and rebounding suffered b/c of small ball.

    So, with Sheed in the game this year, the team is in a big rebounding deficit and we are in the plus with all the other big men.

    It's really hard to tell if Sheed's rebounding is whack or if he is just a statistical casualty. I know his personal rebounding stats are low, but I'm trying to look at how the team rebounds when he's around.


    When I step back and think about it though, rebounding is not our problem this year and Sheed and Dyess won't be around in 2 years anyways.
  15. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    What about FG% of the personnel on the floor? That could have a lot to do with offensive rebound opportunities, and defensive rebound opportunities if opponents are scoring on runouts and we don't get a stop.

    Entropy.
  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    That is exactly right. When I talk about whether a player has an overall positive effect on the team's rebounding, I do look at the breakouts.

    For instance:

    With Dyess on the court, we have eFG of 47.6% vs. 48.9 when he's off. So, there are more offensive rebounding opportunities to be had. But, we also get a higher percentage of the ones that are available (32.2% vs. 25.7%!).

    With him on the court, we give up an eFG of 49.4% vs. 47.6% with him off. So, there are less defensive rebounds to be had. Still, of the ones that exist, we get a higher % of them when he's out there (73.9% vs. 72.0%).

    With Dyess, rebounding is his strength. The weakenes seem to be that our defense gets much worse (goes from 105.6 per 100 possessions to 111 per 100 possessions). If he didn't rebound so well, it would be an even bigger spread.
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Random State of the Union:

    In the last 21 games, we have beaten 1 team with a winning record.

    We currently have the longest losing streak in the NBA at 7, followed by OKC at 6, followed by Memphis at 5.

    We've been outscored by 70 points on the season.

    We now give up 14 more points per 100 possessions than we did in the Championship year.

    Individual on court +/- on season and/ +/-per 48 minutes:
    AJ +48/ +3.1
    RW +35/ +1.0
    WB +3/ +0.6
    KB -3/ -0.3
    WH -6/ -0.1
    AA -21/ -1.2
    AI -37/ -1.0
    RS -67/ -2.1
    TP -68/ -1.7
    RH -71/ -2.4
    ------------------ huge drop off in per minute +/-
    AM -94/ -5.1
    JM -97/ -6.0
  18. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    There is your new starting 5.

    AJ +48/ +3.1
    RW +35/ +1.0
    WB +3/ +0.6
    KB -3/ -0.3
    WH -6/ -0.1

    Walt at the 2, Amir at the 3 where I always thought he should play.
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'd move Sheed to shooting guard on offense and just go zone defense full time.
  20. Ernie the Slow Adult

    Ernie the Slow Adult All-Star Forum Donor

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    Their 4th best +/- guy is a minus?

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