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The Stat Lab

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TaS, Jan 6, 2009.

  1. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The iron man.

    Since coming to the NBA, Tayshaun has never missed a game, except for the 40 DNP-CD's that Carlisle game him in 02-03. That season, Rebraca got more regular season minutes that Tay, 488 to 435. But then in the playoffs, Tay was given 382 minutes (almost his regular season total) and the rest was history.

    But not only is Tay dependable for games, but he has logged more minutes than any player on the team over the last 5 years. In that span since the start of the '05 season, Tay has actually played 2,195 minutes more than Sheed. That equals 66 more games at Tay's average per game in 4.5 years.

    Pretty amazing streak he has going. He outlasted the Palace sellout streak.
     
  2. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Will AI and Amir be a good duo off the bench?

    As a starter, AI was 8-7 with Amir starting beside him (.533).
    Without Amir, AI was 13-21 as a starter (.382). :sssh:


    Are they a perfect pairing? One throws the bone and the other retrieves it? Is Amir AI's junk yard dog?
     
  3. Delfino Delivers

    Delfino Delivers Bench Warmer

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    That's the way I would think it would work but until we see them out there together consistently...

    They both are at their strength in the open court due to lack of stature. That should be a game plan for Curry but he has a hard enough time game planning for the starters, let alone the bench unit.

    Does anyone else here feel that the second unit should be used more as a unit then as individual players?? Subbing them in as a group rather then individuals (unless fouls or injury dictate otherwise). Has that ever been successful in the NBA?? I know when Jon Barry was here there was the "Alternatorz" but did they consist of mostly bench guys??
     
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I agree. Use them more as a unit so they can develop some real chemistry and identity instead of just being role players.

    This is how we end up with 93 points for the starters and 7 for the bench. It's because the bench is only in 1 or 2 guys at a time and they never touch the ball.
     
  5. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    So, their team appears to be playing better without a guy who scores 30ppg... mainly because he's a poor defender.

    I wonder how much better Durrant's defense will get over time.
     
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Chris Anderson.

    In his last 20 games, he has blocked 60 shots. But the amazing part is that he has only averaged 21 minutes per game.

    That works out to 3.0 blocks per game and 5.7 blocks per 40 minutes.

    Could any other teams have picked this guy up or did Denver have his rights while he was out?
     
  7. round

    round All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion

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    want to think anybody could.... we had a thread at one point about whether we should have gone after him... right before he was to come off his suspension...
     
  8. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Chris Anderson - the aggressive Amir.
     
  9. Delfino Delivers

    Delfino Delivers Bench Warmer

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    Does he get called for a lot of fouls being this aggressive? Just wondering if his playing time is limited by fouls (looking for an Amir angle towards the future) or just by the coach.
     
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Yeah, Birdman has a bit of a fouling problem too.

    CA- 19.4 mpg, 2.5 PF/g. 1 foul every 7.8 minutes.
    Here are his high foul games and how many minutes it took:
    PF/ Min
    6/ 20
    5/ 27
    5/ 28
    5/ 23
    5/ 13
    5/ 18
    5/ 24
    5/ 16

    AJ- 16.0 mpg, 3.1 PF/g. 1 foul every 5.2 minutes.
    Here are his high foul games:
    PF/ Min
    6/8
    6/35
    5/17
    5/38
    5/23
    5/11

    Don't know really what to conclude. They both foul a lot. Amir fouls more on average, but they've both had some really high foul intensity games. Some games they seem to be restricted by fouls, but most games their play is limited by the coach.

    Overall comparison (36 minutes):
    CA/ Amir
    .546/ .590 FG%
    .715/ .708 FT%
    11.2/ 8.8 pts
    10.6/ 9.5 rebs
    0.8/ 0.7 ast
    0.9/ 0.8 stl
    4.3/ 2.3 blk

    They both get a lot of offensive rebounds (4.1/36 min for CA and 4.3/36 min for Amir).

    I guess CA is probably the most similar player in the league to Amir right now from a box score perspective. The biggest difference is in the shot blocking... especially when you consider that CA blocks almost twice as many and does it while fouling less.

    Of Amir's fouls this year, 83 have been shooting and 68 have been non-shooting fouls. So, he's blocked 47 shots.

    Of CA's fouls this year, 67 have been shooting fouls and 83 have been non-shooting fouls. He's blocked 113 shots.

    Much better shot blocking ratio for CA.
     
  11. dba

    dba All-Star Moderator 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    This is way too symetrical and cool sounding not to mean something, but I can't figure it out.

    - Amir is more involved in the action defensively? i.e., closer to the ball
    - CA is fouling more off the ball
    - Amir ignores anyone without the ball
    - CA is running through players trying to get to the ball

    Or not...
     
  12. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Yeah, I don't know. It's a tough argument to make that CA isn't on the ball as much because he blocks an enormous % of shots, so he's clearly on the ball on those.

    Here's some more data using on/off stats.

    CA
    On/Off
    106.4/ 107.1- points allowed per 100 (not that big of a difference)
    46.1%/ 49.4%- FG% allowed. 3.3% improvement.
    9%/ 6%- Percentage of shots blocked. 3% improvement.

    The main reason that his defense does not translate into a significant point spread is that Denver's turnovers go way up with Andersen in the same. The turnover margin is 5 worse for Denver with him in the game.

    AJ
    On/Off
    101.9/ 110.1- points allowed per 100. Very big difference.
    45.1%/ 49.6%- 4.4% improvement.
    8%/ 5%- Improvement of 3%.

    The amazing thing to me is that Denver's defense with or without Chris Andersen is better than our defense without Amir by 3 to 4 points. With Amir, we are drastically better than them, and actually have a defense that is statistically equal to the Celtics and Cavs, who both give up 101 points per 100 possessions. Without Amir on the court, we give up 110 per 100, which is the exact same amout as the Oklahoma City Thunder.

    So, without Amir, we are the Thunder.
    With Amir, we are the Cavs/ Celtics.

    Go figure.


    Just one more random stat.

    With Amir on the court, our opponents average 20 free throw makes per 100 possessions.
    With Amir on the bench, our opponents average 19 free throw makes per 100 possessions.

    With Chris Anderson on, Denver's opponents average 20 makes.
    With Chris Andersen off, Denver's opponent average 20 makes.

    So, it would seem that even though both of these players foul at a much greater rate than the rest of their teammates, the overall team fouling does not increase. I think that a big part of this is that they are more active than others and are the first on the scene on a lot of help situations, so they commit fouls when other guys would have.
     
  13. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Do the Pistons play well when an individual player has a big game?

    First up, Rip.

    I will define a big game for Rip as being one where he scores 25 points or more, which he has done 11 times this year. For each player, I'll try to define their criterea in a way that produces approximately their top 10 games.
    • 27 pts/ 5 ast/ 9 reb- Loss to NYK
    • 29/ 14- Win over ORL
    • 25/ 9- Win over BOS
    • 31/6- Win over ORL
    • 30/8- Loss to CHI
    • 27/3- Loss to PHX
    • 38/4- Win over MIL
    • 27/5- Loss to HOU
    • 30/3- Loss to UTA
    • 28/5- Win over IND
    • 29/2- Loss to WAS
    5-6 when Rip has a big game, so not necessarily true that we don't win when he comes up big. But here is the part that stands out to me...

    In games where Rip scores 25 or more points, the Pistons average 105.4ppg and our opponents average 106.4ppg. These are some high scoring affairs! And the list is peppered with good defensive teams (ORL twice, BOS, UTA, HOU).

    Would have to do a similar analysis for the other players, but I'm guessing the results will also be mixed.

    Probably won't have time to do this today, so if any of you have time, go for it. I suggest that you take what looks like the players top 10 games and go from there.
     
  14. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Yea, they're the last line of defense.
     
  15. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Pistons performance when Iverson has a big game:

    AI has had 10 games this year with 25 points or more.

    1) Lost to SAS, 79-83. AI had 31pts/ 7 ast/ and was 13-28 shooting.
    2) Lost to ATL, 95-99. 28/3/11-20
    3) Lost to PHO, 97-107. 25/7/8-22
    4) Win over MIL, 126-121. 27/9/6-17 (16 FTA's)
    5) Win over MEM, 87-79. 27/5/11-18
    6) Lost to UTA, 114-120. 38/7/13-24
    7) Win over WAS, 88-74. 28/3/10-16
    8) Win over LAL, 106-95. 25/4/7-12
    9) Win over SAC, 100-92. 30/9/9-19
    10) Win over LAC, 113-103. 25/5/9-19

    Overall, we are 6-4 in these games. Average score = 100.5 to 97.3.

    AI has had 7 games this year where he shot > .500 from the field. 5 of them occur in this list. Also, he had 2 games where he shot 9-19 and one where he shot 13-28, which were both very efficient games. His 6-17 shooting against MIL was supplemented by his 16 FTA's.

    All of the losses were against good teams and they were relatively close. All of the wins, except for LAL, where against poor teams. The LAL win was the only game this season where AI had a big game (per my definition: one of his top 10 scoring games) and we beat a playoff bound opponent.
     
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    This is interesting stuff TaS, please keep it up!
     
  17. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Probably won't give us any groundbreaking information, but I like these digs where I don't have any idea what the outcome will be.

    How do you define a top 10 game for a big man? pts + rebs + blks?
    Unless anyone has a better suggestion, that's what I'll go by. Don't want to over complicate this. I'm just trying to find an easy definition for what the average fan would think was a big game for a particular player.

    For Bynum and Stuckey, I'll probably go by points + 2xAssists, which would sort of equal how many points they were responsible for.

    Don't have time to do more today, but will keep plugging away at it over time.
     
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    By my calculations...

    Denver is 10-19 when they score less than 100 points.
    Denver is 35-6 when they score more than 100 points.

    Fairly larger difference.
     
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Przybilla with the top rebounding rating in the league... above DHo?

    NBA Player Passing/Rebounding stats

    Maybe he is the big that we should be going after.


    Also, looking at player pairs on our team.
    Detroit Pistons NBA player pair tandem stats and data from 82games.com

    There are 2 combinations that turned out extremely bad this year.

    1) Herrmann + Prince. -14 per 48 minutes.
    2) Amir + Dyess. -14 per 48 minutes.

    With Herrmann and Prince, it is easy to see why this would be the case. They both play the same position.

    With Amir and Dyess, it is interesting, b/c Amir was in the plus with almost every single other player and Dyess was in the plus with about half the other players. But pairing them together was disaster. Amir paired up very well with Brown and Sheed.

    Also, there was only 1 player on the Detroit Pistons who ended the year in the negative when paired with every single other player (per 48 min) on the team. Jason Maxiell.

    With ____, he was - ____.
    Bynum, -4
    AI, -4
    Stuck, -8
    Afflalo, -5
    Rip, -6
    Tay, -6
    Herrmann, -2
    Amir, -2
    Dyess, -6
    Sheed, -6
    Brown, -2

    It's uncanny. There is a hole in Maxiell's boat. It is just hard to see. Multiple years with very low negative +/- relative to his teammates. Too short? Thinks he can shoot? There is something there.
     
  20. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    The Fouling Situation.

    This stat is "Opponents free throws made per 48 minutes" with each individual player on the floor vs. off the floor.

    Player/ On/ Off/ Net positive or -negative
    KB: 15/ 20/ +5
    RW: 17/ 21/ +4
    RH: 18/ 19/ +1
    TP: 18/ 19/ +1
    WB: 19/ 19/ Even
    AJ: 19/ 18/ -1
    AM: 19/ 18/ -1
    RS: 19/ 18/ -1
    JM: 20/ 18/ -2
    WH: 22/ 18/ -4
    AA: 22/ 17/ -5

    The team gave up 19.2 FT makes per 48 minutes this season.

    So, Kwame is the leader in this category. When he's in the game, we drastically improve on the number of free throws we give up. This is somewhat surprising becuase it seems like he really delivers some hard fouls. Maybe a deterrent effect though? Sheed is next, which is very predictable. Sheed plays some of the most fundamental defense possible against the Tim Duncans and Dwight Howards of the league.

    Now, the beauty of this stat is that it not only considers how a player avoids fouling the man that he is guarding, but it also shows the overall benefit of help defense. Many fouls happen when players miss assignments, let their man drive by them, outmuscle them, etc.

    This is why it is so surprising that AA is dead last on the team. Since he got stuck playing so much SB without a real PF in the game and with tiny guards, I'm tempted to say that he is a statistical victim of this. However, it could also be that we play tighter defense with AA in the game and we just pick up more fouls in the process. We do hold the other team to a slightly lower eFG and fewer pp48 when he's out there. It could also be that Afflalo gets bad calls when he hounds his man... or that his D just isn't quite as good as it looks. A mitigating factor is also that we get a lot more FT's ourselves when he's on the court, which fits into my realization (and Joe's contention) that AA is underrated on offense.

    Herrmann is also very poor in this category. The easiest explanation is just that WH's biggest weakness is his foot speed. His teammates probably foul his man more often than they would if he were Tay and did a better job staying in front.

    Of course, Amir's middle of the pack position is also surprising, given that he fouls at the highest rate on the team. Possible explanations: 1) the opposite of the Afflalo argument... while AA spent a lot of time with SB, Amir spent a lot of time with solid veterans and good defenders like Tay and Sheed, and 2) Amir's help defense may prevent as many fouls as it caused by deterring the other team from penetrating and getting fouled closer to the rim.

    The players are so correlated and this stat is such a stable stat (refs seem to have sort of a foul quota per game that they hit) that I don't think much of a conclusion can be drawn from all the players in the middle of the pack (+1 to -1). The outliers are the ones that should be looked at.

    The biggest takeaway for me is that Kwame Brown might be playing some surprisingly good defense and he could possibly be a good player to have out there against Cleveland, where NOT picking up silly fouls against LePew while banging bodies with Varejao could be a valuable contribution. Kwame's biggest negative is that our offense completely falls off a cliff when he is in the game. Maybe that won't be such a big deal in the playoffs since our offense will be shut down anyways... or at least, we will have to score in new, grittier ways with Cleveland smothering us.
     

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