The Tre and how to use it- Fuzzy Math

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by TheeTFD, Oct 19, 2005.

  1. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Everybody loves the bomb even when it bricks. Masonry

    Let's use a game were each team touches the ball 80 times.
    if the home team shoots 50% 2s or 80 pts. plus 10 FTs for 90 pts.
    now the visitor shoots 70, 2s at 50% = 70 pts. plus 9 FTs. for 79 pts. plus 10 3s at .333% [low average] or 9.99 pts. giving them 88.99 pts. or LOSING!
    Next game the visitor shoots 40% [good average] 3s or .4% x 10 = 4 x 3 = 12 pts. for 91 pts. and a WINNER! WINNER! WINNER!
    So you can see here just a little % improvement on the Tre. can over come good 2 pt. shooting. C'Note shoots 42.xx% from the Tre. CAN YOU DIG IT?
     
  2. MotownPride

    MotownPride Starter 2x Fantasy Champion

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    Is this deja vu?
     
  3. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Noone reponded to it.
     
  4. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    I think no one responded because

    1. Chauncey has only shot better than 40% once in his career (ironically, in the tight LB offense)

    2. Fuzzy Math doesn't account for fast break points by the opposing team created by missed treys with exceptionally long rebounds.

    3. Treys rarely draw fouls. This means that teams shooting more treys are likely to not have their opponent in the penalty, and will certainly earn less trips to the line where most teams shoot between 65~75 on single point shots.

    I personally think the Trey has been ruining basketball with it's overuse. Maybe we'll see a D-League type rule where you can only score 3 in the last 5 minutes of the game.
     
  5. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    The math works on all things being equal. 80 transitions and both teams shoot 50%. Since the Tre shooting team wouldn't draw as many fouls I gave them one less FT.
    Are you telling me you don't like the bomb? Where is your sence of risk? For some reason I like the bomb, cause that's all I would and could do. Chicks dig the bomb, right?
     
  6. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    3-pointers

    Just practicing 3-point shots doesn't make you shoot a higher percentage. To make high-percentage 3-pointers, you need an offense that sets up good shots. This either means guard penetration that forces the defense to help or someone posting up that forces a double-team. Good ball movement will lead to an open shot.
     
  7. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    Have you seen this forum? I think my sense of risk should be obvious. I'm freakin Indiana Jones!

    I'm sure some do. So would you be chucking from downtown for the win, or for the post game recreationals? I would think that winners are sexier than losers. :D

    No, I'm not a big proponent of the 3. Did you know that only 22 players shot better than 40% last year? That's less than 1 per team.

    The Pistons problems are not taking more threes. It's MAKING more threes. What killed us against San Antonio was not necessarily the volume of shots, but the quality of opportunities and production from beyond the arc.

    Any team can chuck 16 TPA a game. But if you are only making 4 a night, you're hurting your chances.

    Here is a factoid for the 3 ball lovers. Reggie Miller shot 536 treys in 1997 (6.6 per game). That's good for 19th all time on the 3 point attempts in a season list. His coach? Larry Brown.

    Any good coach will let you shoot a shot you can make at a high %. The Pistons have a lack of consistent 3 point threats outside of Chauncey Billups.
     
  8. himat

    himat Bench Warmer

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    Both

    This team is both great inside, and outside so we can't do too much of both we have to mix it up. Which does not mean throw up 20 3's a game, or 2 3's. We should average about 8 or 9 3's a game.
     
  9. KGREG

    KGREG All-Star

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    Funny how everyone thought the prior Tyrant hated the 3 ball. But as Wave said only Chauncey shot over 40% on this team, so why should anyone else be looking for the trey. I'll admit that with this team over half of the 3's taking make me scream, "Man don't shoot that isht!!!!" Sometimes they fall sometimes they don't, either way if I don't like it, I still ain't happy (jus like the Tyrant). But I understood the rationale, most 3's taken by players are bad shots. The only time it's really a good shot is when you are a L-E-G-I-T 3 pt threat (40%+) and you're WIIIIDE OPEN. During a 24 second clock that shot is available for about 18 seconds ,meaning it's always there because defensively, teams invite that shot, triples often lead to long rebounds and fast break opps. On any possession a team should try to get the highest percentage shot they can by executing their offense, the 3 can be chucked anytime, wait till you have to shoot it, unless you're a 3pt shooter left open
    Q-Rich
    Chauncey
    Joe Johnson
    Reggie etc etc
     
  10. BigDaddy

    BigDaddy First Round Draft Pick

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    I'll agree with that most of the time you can't believe some of the shot selection just to chuck it up.Sometimes it's a desperation shot most times not.but C-Note for the majority of it WIIIIDE OPEN is a hand in his face he's ice baby.
     
  11. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    KingCyMonk, Kgreg, BigD

    Come on, a hand in his face? Not BBowens. In the San An series we waited until desperation before going to our bomber. By then Pop was perpared. So it's high risk high reward. And San An killed us with it. Let's not let that happen again.
    ...So if my math is right those 22 guys that shoot better than 40% should be given free reign. But what was Millers shooting %? It had to be better than 35% or the Tyrant wouldn't let him do it. Of course no team shoots the 2 at 50%, that was to simpilfy the math.
    ...But think about it if you can't penetrate the long 2 aint gonna get it. May as well Tre.
    ...When allowed Sheed has shot the Tre pretty good. But no one wants him back there. I say if Sheed is hot let him bomb.
     
  12. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    42.7%

    In 18 seasons Reggie shot over 40% 10 times. 39.5% for his career.

    And no, not free reign. They have to keep shooting that %. Like CB. He's only got 1 season under his belt as a 40%+ three point shooter. He has a reputation as a clutch shooter, but statistically, he's not all that special as a long bomber.
     
  13. lazyberbs

    lazyberbs First Round Draft Pick

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    The trey is such a mind blower

    I don't know how many of you feel the same way about the trey but whenever one of our guys puts one up, my first reaction is, "Oh, no!!!", but it quickly turns to, "Yeaaaaa". It seems sooooooo illadvised if it misses but such a lift when it goes in.

    There is no other shot that makes me feel that way. And when we do hit a trey and we feel so good, it is doubly hard when the other team comes right back with one.

    When we are trading twos and suddenly somebody injects a trey in there, it seems to make such a big difference, no matter which side makes it.

    There is just no shot in the arsenal that has the impact of the trey, either for good or for bad. It is just a heart stopper.
     
  14. lapiston

    lapiston Team Captain

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    Three part of the game

    It is hard to win without it. What if SA had our offensive philosophy of last year and only drove in with Ginobli and Parker or went into Duncan? We would still be playing game 7. Duncan was something like 8 or nine for 28 in game 7 shooting twos and that with us in foul trouble. Not a good percentage either. Micro, I would say the three is a dagger that can kill the other team but it can also kill us, too. If a team like ours falls in love with the three, we come down a notch. But we have to use the three as a weapon and we have to use our open looks and those looks may be in the first quarter as well as the fourth. I even think that bringing Sheed out for a three here and there adds to our offense as long as it is not his primary way of scoring. By the way, Micro, I am still a bit concerned about our offense THIS year. But it is hard to tell because Flip is looking at it in parts. I am also concerned with how Flip is going to use the bench players and win games from the get go.
     
  15. TBird

    TBird First Round Draft Pick

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    Shootin' 3's

    I'm not opposed to the 3 per se, but 1) you have to have players who can shoot it and 2) they need to be open.

    My biggest issue with this team shooting them (often) is that we don't have either a top-notch low-post threat or someone who can regularly take their guy off the dribble, which is what creates open opportunities. A team like Miami (Shaq/Wade) or SA (Duncan/Ginobili) have both. That leaves them with a whole lot of open shots. And they had guys (Jones/Jones last year in Miami and Barry/Horry/Bowen in SA) who shot a high % from beyond the arc.

    Part of Chauncey's success last year (you could argue) is that he was more willing to take threes within the context of the offense rather than simply launching them within the first five seconds of a possession.

    I share the concern about the fast-break opportunities they create and the fouls that they don't allow you to draw. I also don't care for the 3 with nobody under the basket to rebound the ball.
     
  16. roscoe36

    roscoe36 All-Star Administrator

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    @TBird

    I agree with everything you wrote, particularly the part about CB. I thought that his improved % was more a product of taking the "better" and more patient looks than some sudden improvement in his marksmanship. Patient looks from unselfish teammates will improve any player's numbers.

    @TheeTFD

    It's good to see you recognize me as KCM. At least the roles are understood. :nod:
     
  17. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    That's something I'll never understand, why guys shoot the 3 with out a rebounder at the ready. You aint open enough such that you can give up a rebound 65% of the time.
     
  18. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Warriors bomb Bucks and Red Hot Redd

    At least 2 Warriors combined to shoot 13 of 27 from downtown. Almost 50%. Beware of the bomb part one.
     
  19. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    I think I'll morph this thread into the Bomb Squad. Any team that hoist 25 or more bombs and wins gets mentioned. Might have to watch these cats, you can set up the best interior Dee and dare them to penetrate but they would rather build a church with prayers. And bricks.
     
  20. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Nov. 26, 2005 - A day that will go down in infamy. The Wiz shoot 10 for 26 or .384% beating the Palace Guards, who shot 8 for 28 or .285%. The Wiz already have a victory over the Spurs.
    ...Other Bombers this night: Bulls 8 for 18 or .444% do the Spurs which shot 11 for 28 or .392%.
    ...Warrs shoot 9 for 28 or .321% beat the Jazz. Honorable mention: Mavs shoot 8 for 18 or .444% beat the Heat [Shaqless] who shot 0 for 11 or loser.
     

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