Tigers Tigers 2012

Discussion in 'Football, Baseball, and Hockey' started by LA Dre, Jan 17, 2012.

  1. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    Scherzer likes to shoot himself in foot now and again.
    *
    TaS, did you figure in Dirks depreciating returns due to less at bats. And you are confident at 95% ?
    Wait, so any batter with less at bats [same avg.] has a higher ceiling than a more proven hitter ?
  2. Nemo

    Nemo Pun Master Forum Donor

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    he doesn't play as much cause he gets the manager's discount.
  3. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    If you look at AVG and OBP, then Dirks and Trout look very similar. If you add in other important stats such as home runs, rbi, stolen bases, etc., Trout blows Dirks away to this point.
  4. Nemo

    Nemo Pun Master Forum Donor

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    So Dirks will probably get less MPV votes than Trout.
  5. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    It's hard to predict the MPV voting.
  6. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    It's not really a higher potential- like they can achieve greater things if they work at it. It's more of a greater unknown as to their existing ability because you have less data to go by. You are just not as sure as what you are looking at.

    Think of it this way:
    Somebody randomly selects data from 10 at bats of a random major league player and gives it to you to analyze. You have no idea if the data is from Ryan Raburn or Pete Rose. The data suggests that the unknown hitter has a .400 average over those 10 at bats.

    If you run the math, you might see that you have a 95% confidence level that the unknown hitter actually hit somewhere between .050 and .750 that season. So, that would narrow it down to just about every player who has ever played. If the random data selected gave you 300 at bats and a .400 average, you'd be more like 95% confident that the mystery hitter is somebody that averaged between .390 an .410 for that entire season (a tighter range) and you could probably take a pretty good guess at who it is.


    To give a Pistons comparison, Ben Gordon shot .429 from 3-point land last season. How confident are we that the percentage wasn't a total aberration due to small sample size? The sample for his entire season of 3-point shooting was actually less than Dirks' sample size for at bats this season so far. Only 1 Piston on the team attempted more 3's than Dirks has at bats.

    However, Trout's sample size is more equivalent to Chauncey Billups' free throw attempts in the Championship season. i.e. it's really likely that he's good and not just lucky.
  7. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    So, you're saying Dirks is better than Trout? I get it now.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'm 100% confident that he might be.
  9. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    I need a smiley that's just blowing smoke.
  10. Nemo

    Nemo Pun Master Forum Donor

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    :smoke06: :smoke06: :smoke06: :smoke06: :smoke06: :smoke06: :smoke06: :smoke06: :smoke06: :smoke06:
  11. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    All the smileys don't show up for me. I can see some down in the corners.
  12. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Try making your browser window wider.
  13. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    i think I'm maxed out.
  14. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Cabrera and Fielder are freakin' beasts.
  15. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    Chicks love the long ball and tonight the our turbo twosome were huge knocking in all runs going yard...and scoring all the runs too.

    Verlander started but for the second straight game failed to get a decision. No matter we will take the win no matter who gets the credit. Back into wild card position and waiting for, hoping for a ChiSox and Tampa Bay loss tonight.
    roscoe36 likes this.
  16. BillLaimbeer

    BillLaimbeer All-Star 4x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    The Michigan native is bouncing back nicely after disappointment in London.

    [​IMG]
  17. LA Dre

    LA Dre All-Star 1x Fantasy Champion Forum Donor

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    In the Tigers victory Tuesday night over Toronto, , Scherzer struck out 7 Blue Jays, and not a single Tiger struck out the whole game.

    I am not sure when this is the last time it has happen and I did not read anything on it today, but I remember looking at the box score on MLB.com right after the game wondering when was the last time it had happen...especially to the free swinging Tigers.

    Tonight they struck out 7 times, in their 3-2 win so they are back to normal.....
  18. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    It's really a relief to see Sanchez have a good performance.

    On the strikeout odds, there are about 14 strikeouts per AL game. That means 7 per side.
    There are 34 at bats per team on average in a game.

    The strike out per at bat rate is about .205.

    So, if a team ends up with 34 at bats and has an average strikeout tendency, the odds of them having 0 strike outs would be:

    .795^34= .00041 (or 1 in 2,440 games).

    When you factor in that you'd be just as wowed if it game from either team within a game, then that means that a game would have at least one team go without strikeout in about 1 in every 1,220 games.

    There are 162 x 15 games played per season = 2,430.


    So, the math says that you should expect about 2 games per season with this anomaly.
  19. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Here are the runs scored by the losing teams today:
    0
    1
    1
    1
    1
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2
    2 (8th inning)
    3
    3
    3

    If that 8th inning game holds, then 16 losing teams will have all failed to score more than 3 runs and only 1 of them was shutout.

    Must be the recent suspensions of the dopers that is chilling the league.
  20. TheeTFD

    TheeTFD All-Star

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    it all sounds very preposterous to me.

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