Discussion in 'Tigers and Baseball' started by LA Dre, Jan 17, 2012.
You didn't cheer hard enough for the Rays....
Some meaningless stats to ponder....Tigers were the only team in the AL to notch 50 home wins and match the Reds as the only two ML teams to go 50-31 at home.
The difference:: The Reds have already clinched their division and have 95 wins....the tigers are stuck at 84 and can only max out at 89...They will probably need all 89 of those W's to win the division.
And oh by the way::: The Reds are 45-31 on the road and the Tigers are currently 34-42. Even if they win the remaining five on the road, it would still be the worst record of any playoff bound team this year........
Any reason why we would be so good and home and so bad on the road? It's not like we have a bunch of rookies.
Hard to believe that Villareal was the best option yesterday. If Tigers lose this down the stretch, Leyland will have sealed his fate. No pressure, Patches.
still a full game up
Nice turn of events today. Tigers W. Sox L. Cabrera HR. That's how I would have drawn it up.
Got a win last night, but we are so feeble on the road when it comes to hitting, it's shame here that we may have to back in to the play offs with the help of the Sox losing.....but we will take it...... The starting pitching is there, but need the long ball to keep them honest. Thank goodness they survived the six inning when the Twinks got the first two on. Need some runs Tigers!!!!
Yep...the long ball by Prince bails out the Tigers and the magic # is 2.....heading to 1 if the Rays can hold on and beat the Sox...
It would take a monumental collapse now for the Tigers not to get in. Gotta thank the Rays big time for sticking it to the Sux. I am liking how the Tigers are gutting out these one-run games. This is something they did not seem to be doing earlier in the season. It is a big confidence builder even though it is against some pretty poor competition.
Its nice to see Fielder come through while Cabrera is under so much pressure. Would like to get both of them a couple days rest if they can clinch this thing tomorrow....but i want the triple crown too....so I think he needs at least 2 dingers and 4-5 hits in these last three games to clinch both MVP and Triple Crown.
The critical thing now is clinching tomorrow. Then you get to for sure start JV in game 1 of the playoffs and you can also rest Scherzer for an extra couple days and line him up behind JV to play on the road. JV, Scherzer, Fister, and Sanchez going strong with both Porcello and Smyly available for relief would be incredibly strong. It all hinges on whether Scherzer is OK and if he can reboot mentally to get back to the level that he's been at in the 2nd half of the year.
Clinching tomorrow improves our odds in rd 1.
One more thing to think about here. If we get into the playoffs, who will we be playing?
Yankees- 92-67/ Orioles- 92-67
We're not going to be the wildcard team, so we are going to play the division winner with the 2nd best record. As it currently stands, that would be the survivor of NY/Bal. Going by run differential, I would think that we should be rooting for Baltimore to win that division (they are unbelievably only at +11 on the season while being 25 games over .500). At the very least, it's less intimidating starting on the road there than in NY. Bal has the 14th best ERA in the league and the 20th best batting average. It's a miracle that they are were they are. Also, on a side note, it's a good thing that their plane didn't crash today.
The worst case outcome for us is that NY and Baltimore duke it out and settle it in the final game and surpass Texas, who may have it wrapped up sooner and may take their foot off the gas.
Best case scenario is that NY and Bal have worse records than Tex and that they go to a 1-game play-in game and spend their best pitchers.
NY is our B
Odds of Detroit missing the playoffs:
Det loss ^3 x Chi win ^3 x Chi win in play-in game.
We'll just assume .500 odds for all games to create a "ballpark" estimate.
1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/128 (0.8% of us missing, 99.2% for us to make it)
ESPN has the odds of us making it at 99.1%, which is different because it probably factors in the records of us, Chi, and the opponents with H and A field.
Well, is it 99.2% or 99.1%? I'm a little worried about the discrepancy.
Looks like we will need a win today to clinch as the Indians are not putting up a fight against the Sox....who have punched thru 4 in the 6th inning.
Baltimore's low run differential to me indicates that they have won a lot of close ballgames. The team knows how to win in the clutch.
Regarding tonight's game, it is 6-1 as I write, and I guess I should be glad that Porcello didn't mess it up. But I can't believe this guy can't get through six innings. He has about as much grit as an old sponge.
Hot damn! Clinch it early and Cabrera gets 4 hits to pull away on average and a big HR to keep the triple crown a possibility. The main reason that I want to see him get it is because I know that it is the only way that Trout doesn't get the MVP. Nothing against him, but I just like that the TC is basically an automatic win.
Really clutch by Porcello to only allow 1 ER... and he may not even be in the playoff rotation if we shorten it up. Al Al let in his first run of the year. And the rest of the pitching staff did their jobs.
Just recently realized that the format this year is 2 at home for the team with the losing record and then 3 at home for the team with the winning record. So, game 1 and game 2 will be at Comerica on Sat and Sun, then Mon is off and games 3, 4, and 5 would be on the road. NY won and Bal lost tonight, so that puts the odds on NY being our opponent. However, if Texas loses tonight, they are tied with the Yanks (not sure on the tie breaker for them). We'd rather play NY than Texas, right?
The 2-3 format is very favorable for us I would say. Verlander/ Scherzer (or Fister) at home to start the series is pretty great. And if it happens to go to game 5, you have Verlander again on the road with the spotlight.
11 wins is all we need.
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