Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by armygirl, Dec 28, 2006.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this one, Roscoe.
Ok Bill. You are probably right anyways. We could have won a title with Adrian Dantley, Mark Aguirre or Amir Johnson.
I'd go for confident and cocky. 'Cause you know, cocky isn't such a bad thing. This game is won as often as not on will and desire. Does he make the big shot because he's confident in his abilities, or does he make it bacause he thinks he's the baddest bad azz on the court? Not sure I really care as long as he's willing to take the shot and make it more times than not. I don't have to live with him afterwards.
But I am with you - you don't trade a player because of one or two or three bad games. And getting fair value back would be tough, especially if you think CB can lead you to another title. (Which I do.)
The problem is with the interaction of cockiness and bad games. CB has made some bad decisions lately. I think it's hard to argue about that. And he needs to take some responsibility for those and for not running the offense better during crunch time. If he's cocky and arrogant in games while still playing the right way, I'm happy to live or die with his jumper and his decisons. If he's still cocky the next morning in practice after one of these losses and won't think about what he could have done better to get a win, then he needs to go regardless of whether you can get fair value or not.
The grass is always greener with another point guard.
Leave Chauncey alone for a while.
On the Pistons, he is:
2nd in Points
1st in Steals
1st in assists
1st in Min played
1st in Roland rating
1st in +/-
1st in production.
And the Pistons are a very balanced team.
Good post, Roscoe. LB had Chauncey on a short leash. That was a low-risk strategy. Flip gave him freedom, and there's good and bad in that, obviously.
Re post 15, it is NEVER a good idea to foul a three-point shooter. No numbers can overcome that.
It's just math. It depends on each players 3PFG% and FT%. He didn't intentially foul him. It was accidental as he was contesting the shot. Is it ever a good idea to contest a 3 point shot?
The 2 players on the Pistons that I would foul in that same situation are Rasheed Wallace and Flip Murray.
3point % of .381 > odds of making 3 free throws- .349
3point % of .393 > odds of making 3 free throws- .337
All the rest of our players would be more likely to make the FT's than the shot.
I don't know that it quite works out that simply, TaShawn, because I sort of doubt that each FT a player takes is really an independent event. I've never seen any stats on how well people shoot on the second versus the first FT (though I've never gone looking for them), but it's possible that the rhythm you get from shooting the first can help you on the second. The same might be even more true in the very uncommon situation of shooting three FTs, i.e. your chances of making the third might be even higher still.
This surely has at least something to do with the stories you sometimes hear about bad FT shooters, where they seem to do well in practice, but just can't get it done at the line during games.
i'm disappointed with cb, but i don't see the point in trading him right now (more or less following the lines of dba's feelings and argument).
i share roscoe's opinion that cb has himself participated in a kind of hyping that leads to him deservedly getting more scrutiny, expectations being higher etc... hell, sheed has games like this every few days and i don't ride him. but neither sheed nor anyone else talks about sheed as an mvp candidate.
and its not only that nobody else on the pistons is promoted as or promotes themselves as mvp caliber players. it's also the position chauncey plays. perhaps i misunderstand the responsibilities of the point guard. it's the position i use to play and maybe i have a skewed understanding of that position based on the coaching i received. so big disclaimer for what follows: but to me, the buck stops with the point guard. the job is to make the team run on offense in such a way that you -- the point guard -- are pracatically invisible. and to set a tone on defense that inspires your teammates to up their intensity, contest every pass, stay in front of their men, rotate hard to help, take charges, box out hard, and go hard for the loose balls and rebounds. i will absolutely give chauncey credit for his assists and his assist to TO ratio. he's phenomenal in that regard, in just the way that i think a PG should be.
the problem with him, in my opinion, is that he doesn't seem to understand the "quietness" of the PG impact on the game. A true PG, in my mind, may need to hhit plent of big shots, but he should never assume an identity like "Mr Big Shot". Just hit most of the shots you have when you are open, hit your FT's at the end of games, understand that getting your own shots is a last resort, one to use only as a means to jump start the offense when your teammates are stalled
and in order to create opportunities for them. I really think that C has taken the identity of Mr Big Shot too much to heart. With some of those would-be dagger 3s, it's almost as if CB is thinking like an announcer: anticipating the commentator's exclamation and the highlight reel clip showing him burying the 3. I don't know if I'm getting this across. But very very few PG's have the talent to truly play the position spectacularly (Nash, Kidd -- maybe less so now, Paul more and more). and i don't know of any PG in teh league today that combines those abilities with the kind of defensive intensity that I was taught must be part of a PG's contribution. CB's not one of those. Maybe that's just not the kind of player he is. And that's cool. I'll still take him over most of the alternatives, but it's clear to me that I need to adjust my expectations of him and hope that he can continue to do more good than harm as he has over the past few years.
Sports isn't ``just math'', even if the calculation is valid. One of the fundamental principles of defense is that you don't bail out a jumpshooter by fouling him. End of story!
Hack, there is a lot of conventional wisdom in sports that is flawed. More and more of it is being debunked as statistical analysis provides breakthroughs.
A player's free throw % is essentially the average between first shots and second shots (and sometime 1 only or 3 shots) at the line. So, that is already built in.
Also, there is not a big difference between the way players shoot in the clutch versus a non-pressurized shot.
NBA Random Stat: Clutch Free Throw Shooting from 82games.com
I think the bigger facter in this analysis is the difference in the % of a jump shot when it is contested vs not contested.
Take a look at the following analysis from a full season of Sac Kings bball. Contesting a shot drops the eFG from .611 to .385.
Sacramento Kings player offensive production by shot contestedness from 82games.com
Do you think Chauncey wanted to foul him? He wanted to contest the shot, and he got a piece of him. It happens, stop freaking out.
of course he didn't want to foul him. it's just what you say himat: he wanted to contest it and he got a piece of him.
but maybe your or someone else here is willing to explain (or guess at an explanation for) why chauncey was leaning against the scorer's table laughing and smiling after the foul...
for some reason, that's really sticking in my craw and i'd love to get it over, but i can't come up with an explanation that helps me do so.
TaShawn, I'm not sure your calculation is the right one to be making. CB didn't foul Steph in the last 5 seconds or anything; it was with about 2 minutes left, if I remember right? Anyway, I'm about to point out that the key measure here is, perhaps, the expected value of the points scored, not the odds of scoring three points.
In that case, with Marbury's percentages of .314 on 3s and .723 on FTs, the expected value of his total points in each situation would be:
(a) He shoots the 3 with no foul: .314*3 = 0.942
(b) He gets fouled: .723*1*3 (.723 pts expected on each FT) = 2.17
So that difference is very stark.
Because he and Marbury are buddies. Marbury said "Chauncey, you know that conventional wisdom says that you should have just let me drain that 3 in your face. Why did you contest it?" Chauncey didn't bother bringing up FG percentages and all that, so he just laughed it off.
Nobody said anything about not contesting the shot, but the rest of it is completely asinine. This should be beyond explanation, but a 3 is a low-percentage shot and an FT is a high-percentage shot. There is no more to be said about it.
Can't over react and trade CB right now. If the Pistons were 9-18 instead of 18-9, then I would be all for it. The way the rest of the teams are playing in the east and the way the injury bug has hit this season, the eastern conference title is ripe for the Pistons recapture.
I don't think CB is in a slump, everyone knows he is just trying to build his case for the big summer payday. So thse silli decisions he is making is not helping him but hurting the team. This is a time for him to be called into Joe's office for a mentoring/coaching session. It's obvious Flip can't control him.
Because I'm doing the calculation for "odds of the Knicks tying the game". If they don't tie it, I don't care how close they come. And I think there was 20 seconds left. To be complete, you would have to factor in the odds of Marbury making the shot AND getting fouled, which also brings losing into the equation (which I didn't do).
If you are up 2 points and they throw the ball into Shaq in the post, do you foul? Most teams have decided, yes. The reasoning is very similar. The reason that you con't contest/foul Shaq is because he has a much greater chance of getting an and1 than a 3 point shooter does.
Hack, by your rationale, assume the following:
You are up 50 points. There is a rock and jock 50-point basket. They inbound the ball to Cindy Crawford with 5 seconds left. She shoots 5% from 50 point range and 80% free throws. Do you foul her or let her take the shot?
Yeah, it was 22 sec left in the first OT when CB fouled Steph, with the Pistons up 3. I looked at the play-by-play on NBA.com for that.
Anyway, interesting subject...maybe we should start another thread for this?
TaS, thanks for hijacking this thread.
However I'm sure our brilliant PG already did the math pregame and was prepared for the situation.
He and Rip are our primary scorers get use to it. Tay, Sheed and the rest lapse in and out of offensive conscienceness like fighter pilots in a high G dogfight.
Another thing, you are hearing it from me right now, december 28, 2006, when we make it too the playoffs, ECF, Conf Finals, whatever, CB will be the game killer. Mark my words.
That's right, we'll see those bandwagon cats come playoff time!!!
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