What realistic moves would you like the Pistons to pursue?

Discussion in 'Pistons and NBA' started by Mark V, Nov 19, 2013.

  1. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    That's exactly my point. Getting nervous despite evidence that this actually causes teams to come back and win is exactly why Mo Cheeks probably felt better after doing it as well.
  2. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    FT% is irrelevant to me with regards to this. What I want to see is a steady stream of teams coming back and winning as a direct result. THAT is what we don't see.
    All we keep hearing is IF said player doesn't make X amount of FTs then your team gets X amount of extra possessions and potentially X amount of points and blah blah blah...What we don't see is teams clearly being beaten until hacking "whoever" and then having a fantastic comeback to pull out the win. Most teams that come back and win games have defense, execution, and momentum on their side and don't even bother to resort to hacking (i.e. the two Laker losses).
  3. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    You're dealing with a really murky data set to conclude that reality contradicts math. Prior examples are all over the board in terms of variables (points down, time left, ft shooter percentage, status quo success rate, consistency of applying strategy, opposing teams reactions... where they usually pull the guy getting fouled, etc). Dre is below the breaking point on paper and you have about 3 real life examples of him getting fouled to study.
  4. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    If you had a 0% ft shooter and you were the coach, would you wait for the other team to actually beat you once before modifying your strategy? Or would you realize that you have alternate options that are better? The question is, does leaving dre in beat taking him out.
  5. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    You don't play the games on paper. You've got nearly 2 decades of this crap being pulled and clearly no one stopped Shaq and the Lakers from dominating the NBA while doing it. It would have been easy to completely derail Shaq's teams by doing this, only, it didn't happen. The only times I can remember teams winning against DET with Ben Wallace is when Flip would give in and pull him out of the game and we instantly lost our defense and rebounding which you desperately need at the end of games. Again, we're seeing it this year. Drummond is the new whipping boy for people who love this BS theory and the teams that have done it have failed to come back on us. As a matter of fact, the only time anyone cut into one of our leads is when Cheeks took Dre off the floor and they went on a run because he wasn't in there dominating like he had been.
    linwood likes this.
  6. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    Absolutely leaving Dre in beats taking him out. His on the court play makes that clearly evident.

    ...and just like with any sport, you definitely wait for a team to prove they can beat you before you wreck your game plan "just in case." This is why the Spurs managed to stay contenders while we shot ourselves in the foot. After the 2005 Finals, Joe D instantly started with this "the league is changing and we have to adjust" business while the Spurs stuck with what was working. You don't kill your own momentum out of fear that something MIGHT go wrong.
  7. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    ....and it's not like you have to go on a 15 game losing streak to figure that out.
  8. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    Dre is minus for the year on the court. The team is plus without him.

    The game is played on the court by the players, but the coach plays the game on paper. We're talking about coaching decisions here.

    You need more data that you don't have to draw your conclusion because of the impure nature of your samples.
    Maybe the strategy would have a high success rate if coaches employed it earlier for instance. Maybe they don't act optimally because of shame.
  9. Pwn Toney

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    Really? Do you really think this team is better without Drummond on the court? Seriously?
    The coach should NOT be playing the game on paper. This is the #1 thing I loved about LB. He coached the game on the floor, not the game he figured might happen on paper or the game that SHOULD be playing out, but isn't. He was masterful at adjustments because he paid attention to the actual game...not just the "numbers."

    The only data I need is teams that win consistently while "hacking" and the proof just isn't there. You even admit that there is not an obvious statistical success rate for the strategy, yet everyone is "sold" on it being valid. Every time it gets pulled and it fails, there's never enough data to suggest that it's a faulty strategy.

    Fine...let's watch for the rest of this season and see how many time it appears to "directly" lead to a victory and we'll have numbers. If numbers matter so much, let's get them. Wins matter to me more than stats, but if that's what will do it for people, let's figure it out.
  10. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I don't have the data set you do. How many times had it been attempted on sub 40 percent ft shooters?
  11. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    So far:
    Dec 1, 2013 vs PHI - Hack Employed - Result: Failed (note: 20+ pt lead cut to 10 AFTER Drummond was pulled)
    Dec 4, 2013 @ MIL - Hack Employed - Result: Failed (No appreciable decrease in lead)

    As of Dec 6th, 2013
    Hack-A-Drummond = 2 Games Employed / 0 Wins
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  12. Pwn Toney

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    They don't need to be sub 40...they just need to be poor shooters.
    Shaq started the trend and he was career: 52%
    Ben Wall was career: 41%
  13. Pwn Toney

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    As a matter of fact, I'm going to move this over to a new thread so it can have it's own dedicated space. :)
  14. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    How many of those two games would have been won without hack a dre?
  15. Pwn Toney

    Pwn Toney All-Star Forum Donor

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    Impossible to answer because the strategy was used during the game in what can only be assumed was an attempt to win the game.
  16. TaS

    TaS All-Star Forum Donor

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    I'll answer it. We would have also won both.
  17. Pwn Toney

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  18. Pwn Toney

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    I need more data to prove that.
  19. TaS

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    Do you believe fouling the man with the ball repeatedly at the end of a game has ever resulted in a comeback win?
  20. Pwn Toney

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    Rarely...but, if you have someone like Reggie Miller who goes unconscious on you, it improves your chances. However, most teams don't have that kind of player, that's why he's legendary. It doesn't get you a win a vast majority of the time.

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